Daily Lemon: Why nuking Iran may be biggest mistake yet

Why nuking Iran may be the mother of all mistakes.
Yesterday I explored some events that could result from letting Iran go ahead and finish their nuclear weapons. The post was inspired by a story by Seymor Hersh in The New Yorker, where Mr. Hersh claims the Bush administration is planning an attack on Iran. The reason would be to deny Iran the chance to develop nuclear weapons. Apparently the White House are so worried by this, they are prepared to use the United States' own nuclear arsenal to this end.

Yesterday, I said that nuking Iran may not be such a bad idea, after all. This was after considering the possible results of nuclear weapons technology in Iranian hands. Today I'll explain why such an attack may very well be the mistake of a Millennium, and the end of the World as we know it.

A nuclear attack on Iran by the U.S. (with or without a coalition of other Western powers) would most likely be seen by the Iranians as humiliating to their national pride and quickly be exploited by political and religious extremists. A rich but primitive country obtaining (albeit with help from Pakistan) the status of nuclear power only to be brutally shoved back down the ladder by the arrogant Americans. I don't think they'll stand for it. I also think the rest of the muslim world would (at least for the duration) set aside their sectarian differences to join in a resulting all-out global jihad against the United States and the rest of the Western world. And that, boys and girls, is bad news for all of us.

On paper it may look like a walk in the park. But so did Afghanistan and Iraq. The most powerful nation in the history of the world and it's allies against the powers of Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, The Emirates, Indonesia, The Sudan and the rest does not look like a very close contest, does it? Well, maybe not at first. The West would nuke some nuclear plants, and attack airfields, army bases, factories and government facilities with conventional weapons. They could probably wipe out large portions of the regular troops with cluster bombs, fuel/air munitions, napalm or white phosphorus without taking many, or any, casualties. The breakdown of the countries' armed forces and civilian administration would follow, and Western administrators and troops would be sent in to the oil rich countries to see to it that the oil keeps flowing. The rest would be left to their own devices. Millions would die from lack of food, water and medical care in the chaos after the battle. The situation would be much like what's happening in Iraq right now, only multiplied by a thousand. But the combatants of these and other muslim countries are not just the troops in uniform, but in reality every living, breathing soul. Every man, woman or child who can muster the strength to pick up a stick of dynamite (or just an ordinary stick, for that matter) or an old Russian RPG would gladly die a martyr's death in an effort to take out one of us infidels. Anyone of us. An all out war with people who actually wants to die for their cause just as much (or more) than we want to live for ours, can't be fought and won unless we're willing to make the same sacrifices and fight the war with the same medieval ruthlessness as they are. I don't really think we are. And that's why I think we would lose. And that's why I don't think we should poke our sticks into this particular anthill right now.

11 April 2006

Why nuking Iran may not be a bad idea, after all.
How distressing this thought may be, the alternative is far worse. The prospect of an Iranian nuclear bomb married to long- or even medium range missiles is our worst nightmare, especially considering the attitude of the present Iranian leadership. Any Iranian research in this field must clearly be stopped in its tracks before a nuclear weapon can be developed. When such a weapon becomes operational it is too late to do anything about it, as was the case with Pakistan and India, two countries that really should not be allowed to own anything more dangerous than sticks and stones. It will most likely be too late for a couple of million Israeli's, too, since the first Iranian missiles most likely has Tel Aviv and Haifa written all over them.

Iranian nukes will also put shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at the mercy of the Iranians, which is bad news for everybody with oil imports from the Persian Gulf. A nuke detonated in this narrow strait would make it unnavigable for 50,000 years, which is longer than any of us care to wait.

It seems that given the attitude of the present Iranian leadership and, considering the alternatives, a preemptive strike (nuclear or conventional) against the Iranian nuclear research and manufacturing facilities should be a top priority for both the U.S. and the E.U. The case for such an attack seems much more well founded than the 2003 invasion of Iraq, an action that, in hindsight, was taken on false and misleading information. Saddam was a harmless (at least for everyone but his own people) bullshitter, who, left alone, would have kept the Iraqis in line. The present Iranian leader, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has said publicly that he thinks Israel should be wiped off the face of the Earth, and that Iran reserves the right to develop nuclear technology, should it decide to do so. The country has also decided to continue its nuclear research against the rulings of the IAEA and the UN. Iran is also on the last legs of a UN Security Council ruling giving it 30 days to halt its nuclear research, or run the risk of possible sanctions.

10 April 2006

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